Paul Wasicka Blog

Yes I bet football. Yes I’m new to it. Yes I need good information.

Yesterday I’m looking at the Jets/Pats under, which was between 42 and 40 depending on when you got it. Pretty low number but WeatherUnderground shows 98% chance of rain.The weather channel on my tv shows 100% humidity in Foxboro and so does weather.com.

So I take the under a few hours before game time. When I turn on my tv, the weather looks wayyyyyy too nice for a low number like 40. Completely unacceptable. Obviously I got crushed.

I know weather is somewhat unreliable but day of? A few hours beforehand? Come on.

Um yeah…. so is there a weather site that actually knows what’s going on?

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This weekend I really burned the candle at both ends. Spent two days teaching at the WSOP Academy, which was awesome as always. The Academy has a couple of new speakers who I’d like to hear, a mathematician, whose name I don’t remember and Sam Chauhan, who specializes in finding one’s own mental balance. As I’m sure you guys know, that’s something I’ve worked on throughout my career. I also did an appearance at Harrahs, shaking hands, signing autographs and playing a little simulated cash game where people could ask me questions.

My best friend and manager Truman knew some guys who were in town for Dream Team Poker, which was a team poker thing that went down at the Hard Rock. I’d hoped to compete but wasn’t able to work it out schedule-wise. I did attend the kick-off party in the penthouse suite at the Hard Rock. The suite had a tub/pool in the middle of it and it made me think that probably a lot of rockstars have gotten freaky in that tub. Blegh! Hope someone cleans the pool from time to time. It also had a sweet bowling alley but I of course waited till the end of the night to get my bowl on, at which point a self-important bouncer (aren’t they all?) told me that the bowling lane was closed. Oh really? Because it wasn’t closed two seconds ago when three blondes wearing half a t-shirt wanted to bowl. Good party, lame bouncer.

Later that night I met up with Justin Bonomo and JC Alvarado at The Artisan. This place is really cool, about as non-Vegas as you’re going to find. First off, The Artisan is pretty far off the beaten path so the drunken bachelor party crowd is nonexistent. The atmosphere is like a dark library stocked with weird – and probably famous – pieces of art. Obviously they’re replicas but it all makes for some good dark, funky, ambience. Best yet, there’s no video poker or annoying slot machines anywhere around. I’ll definitely be back. 

On Saturday I tried out the new Hard Rock poker room, which is pretty sweet. They play good music the whole time and there’s plenty of space so you don’t feel cramped. Was it just me or were the cocktail girls extra fast? Oh also, it turns out that my favorite card hostess Lexi – who’s nametag says SEXY – moved over to the Rock from Caesars, so she came and played for a while too.

Truman’s friends wanted to get drinks and play some $1-2 so we all sat down. Right as the table was starting, Tiffany Michelle, Maria Ho, and Christina Lindley showed up and started talking smack so obviously we had to settle it on the table. Tiffany and I traded stacks for the whole night and I really don’t know who got the best of whom.

I wanted to keep battling at the table but NOBU was calling my name so the boys and I sat down to a bunch of dishes: salmon tartar w/ caviar (good), lobster roll (ok), house special (eh) and Black Cod (INCREDIBLYFREAKINGAMAZING!!!!!!) Seriously you guys should go there. The Cod gets the nod.

The girls invited us to their party at The Bank, this club in the Bellagio. I normally hate going to clubs but I actually had a really fun time. Ran in to Jeff Madsen, Greg Mueller and a bunch of other pros. It’s fun to hang out with poker players away from the tables because for once, we’re not trying to kill each other. Not much sleep though. :

On Sunday I sweated my football bets with Eric Lindgren, who has the sickest sports-watching setup imaginable. He has 9 huge flat screens to watch all the different games at once. For someone like me with no attention span, it’s absolute heaven! After I saw his Flat Screen Wall of Awesomeness for the first time, I was inspired to build my own, although mine’s on a slightly smaller scale.

I did really well this week with the bets (Giants +3, ATL +1, Texans/Ravens over 42) and of course my Tennessee Money Train Titans covered handily. You’re my boy(s) BLUE!!

Then Tru and I headed to the Rio to watch some of the Main Event final table. We got there just in time to see Chino Rheem go out on a bad beat (AQ to AK all-in prelflop). He never flinched though, even though I know seeing the Queen come out must have felt like a dagger in the gut. It made me wonder, would you rather go out from the ME on a bad beat or due to a mistake you made? Seems obvious that one would probably rather get bad beat but it might depend on your beliefs about luck, superstition, God, etc. Anyway, hope everyone had a good weekend!  As always, you can hit me up at kwickfish.com.
–Paul

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What an exciting card tonight! I know the fights started 20 mins ago but I’ve got it on DVR so I haven’t seen anything yet. I wrote this as quick as I could so that I could make some predictions beforehand. Usually I like to make the predictions when I see guys step into the ring. If I don’t know either fighter, I just consider the fighter’s builds, their prefight interviews, and who looks like they want it more. Anyway, here goes:

Georges St-Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
Pick: GSP
Who I want: Ambivalent (I really like both fighters)
Analysis: I think Fitch has a lot of talent and heart, but right now I feel that it’s GSP’s time.  He is in such great shape and has faced tougher opposition than Fitch.  I will say that Fitch has probably the best shot of dethroning GSP of anyone, but I think his victory will come in the inevitable rematch.

Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
Pick: Herring
Who I want: Herring
Analysis: The Texas Crazy Horse is a force to be reckoned with in the Heavyweight division.  I thought he dominated the fight against Cheick Kongo  a match that I thought Kongo would win handily.  Herring is one of the better conditioned athletes in his weight class and he can definitely deliver  but more importantly take a shot.

Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
Pick: Florian
Who I want: Ambivalent (I really like both fighters)
Analysis: I think this fight has potential to be the most exciting fight of the night.  I picked Florian because of the quality fighters he’s matched up against.  Huerta always seems to find a way to win, and there’s definitely something to be said for that, but I think that this will definitely be his toughest fight to date.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
Pick: Gamburyan
Who I want: Gamburyan
Analysis: I don’t know much about Emerson, but Gamburyan is an absolute beast.  He is always really fun to watch and has a lot of potential in this sport.

Jason MacDonald vs. Demian Maia
Pick: MacDonald
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I was really impressed with MacDonald in the match against Rich Franklin (even though he ended up getting TKO’d).  He has been on fire recently, with wins over Joe Doerksen  albeit not the Doerksen in his prime, Chris Leben, and Ed Herman

Luke Cummo vs. Tamdan McCrory
Pick: I’ll have to wait to see the fighters since I don’t know much about either fighter
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis:

Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
Pick: Kongo
Who I want: Evensen
Analysis: I used to be a Kongo fan, but I think his fights are usually a little slow paced and boring.

Andre Gusmao vs. Jon Jones
Pick: Jones  although I might change the pick once I see the fighters
Who I want: Jones
Analysis: Hopefully this will be an exciting fight, as both fighters are undefeated and both making their UFC debuts.  I don’t know why I’m rooting for Jones, maybe because I like his style of fighting  Muay Thai, Jiu-Jitsu, and Wrestling.

Chris Wilson vs. Steve Bruno
Pick: Wilson  although again, I might change the pick once I see the fighters
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I’m picking Wilson solely because he took Jon Fitch the distance, but I could very well change my mind if I don’t see what I’m looking for when he comes out.

Ben Saunders vs. Ryan Thomas
Pick: I’ll have to wait to see the fighters since I don’t know much about either fighter
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I don’t know anything about these guys.

Getcha Popcorn Ready!
Paul

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I’m a huge fight fan and a few nights ago featured a number of really good fights.  I feel like I have a pretty good knack for looking at two fighters and predicting the winner, although this doesn’t really take the odds into consideration.  Here were some of the fights from the other night, as well as my thoughts and predictions:

Brodie Farber vs. Rory Markham
  Prediction: Markham  correct
  Who I wanted: Ambivalent
   Analysis: This fight could have gone either way.  At first Markham got the upper hand with a couple of early shots, and then Farber went on the attack and landed a ton of shots in a row; however, Markham was backing up for most of the shots, so it didn’t look like the shots did much damage at the time.  Then Farber kept pursuing Markham and ran into a devastating roundhouse that immediately ended the fight. Definitely one of the most dramatic finishes of the night.

Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns
  Prediction: Johnson  incorrect
  Who I wanted: Johnson
  Analysis: I will say that I thought that the fight was slightly in Johnson’s favor before he couldn’t continue due to being eye gouged for the third or forth time.  In my opinion Burns should have been disqualified rather than Johnson being declared TKO’d.

Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O’Brien
  Prediction: Velasquez  correct
  Who I wanted: Ambivalent
  Analysis: I didn’t know much about either fighter here, I just decided to pick who I thought looked best prepared for the fight.  They both looked like really talented guys and I’m excited to see them both fight again.

Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar
  Prediction: Franca  incorrect
  Who I wanted: Edgar
  Analysis: Edgar really impressed me in this fight.  I thought Franca would submit him at some point throughout the fight, but Edgar’s standup and ground and pound was just too much for Franca.  I really like Edgar not only for his talent in the ring, but he seems like a really cool guy in his pre and post fight interviews.  From now on I’m both rooting for and betting on this kid :

Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy
  Prediction: Vera  correct
  Who I wanted: Vera
  Analysis: This had to be the worst fight of the night.  Vera looked like an absolute monster in the ring because he cut down to 205 (he usually fights in the Heavyweight division).  However, his energy was dramatically affected by the weight cut and it definitely showed in the ring.  Normally I like watching him fight, but he merely eeked out a mind-numbingly boring Unanimous Decision in this fight.  If he wants me back as a fan, he’ll have to show a lot more life.

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin
  Prediction: Silva  correct
  Who I wanted: Silva
  Analysis: My only complaint was that the fight didn’t last long enough.  Silva has to be one of the best (if not the best) pound for pound fighters in MMA.  He is so sick that he chose to fight up a weight class at 205 for this fight (He normally fights at 185).  Can anyone stop him, even at 205? If anyone can, Forrest Griffin probably stands the best chance, but even there, I’d give a clear edge to Silva.

Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick
  Prediction: Hominick  correct
  Who I wanted: Young
  Analysis: I had seen Hominick fight before and thought he was winning the fight in a couple of his losses where he got caught.  I think he is a little under rated, so I chose to pick him over Young, even though I wanted to see Young win the fight.

Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo
  Prediction: Barnett  correct
  Who I wanted: Ambivalent
  Analysis: I didn’t really know anything about either of these fighters coming in, so again I waited until I saw them both and was pretty confident in my pick.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell
  Prediction: Arlovski  correct
  Who I wanted: Arlovski
  Analysis: Arlovski is really fun to watch and he’s an absolute machine.  He weighs 235 lbs. and is incredibly ripped, unlike most heavyweights.  He looks like a wolverine because he’s really hairy and wears a mouth guard that looks like he has fangs.  His precision and tenacity won this fight, though I will say that Rothwell can freakin take a punch.  That guy should have been knocked out much earlier.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia
  Prediction: Emelianenko  correct
  Who I wanted: Emelianenko
  Analysis: I’ve watched Emelianenko in Pride Fighting and he is extremely fun to watch.  Mainly because he looks like a complete chump when he enters the ring and anyone who is new to the sport automatically thinks he is going to get his ass handed to him and then he goes and proves everyone wrong.  I love watching him fight and I really hope that he works out contract negotiations to enter the UFC because he deserves more notoriety than he currently has.  Personally, I think that he should hire on a nutrition/training expert because a cut Emelianenko would be extremely scary. Good Stuff!
Paul

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In customary Kwickfish style, I really didn’t want to post anything right after I busted from the WSOP main event. So a few days late, here’s the recap. On day 01, my table played extremely conservatively, as did I. Most pots were limped, which suited me just fine. Other than Lee Markholt, I didn’t recognize anyone at the table. I hadn’t played with Lee before but I was really impressed by his play. He played position a lot and basically tried to take luck completely out of the equation. I didn’t see many high pocket pairs on Day 1, probably because a guy at my table was getting all of them. He literally got dealt Aces five times, once when someone else had Kings and another person had Queens. Nice way to pick up 40,000 chips.

Although I ended Day 01 with only 27k, I was very happy with how I played. I put myself in one bad situation where I didn’t pot commit myself when I continuation bet. I had to make a tough call with Jacks on a Q, 7, 9 board. It ended up being a good call but I still allowed myself to be put to a very difficult decision, something good poker players try to avoid.

Day 02 didn’t go my way. I lost half my stack within the first hour and although I managed to double up a few times, I kept getting whittled down until I made my stand with K, 5. When my opponent turned over A, 10, I knew I was dead. The &*%%* A, 10 has been my elimination hand in many a tournament. It hates me like A, Q hates Hellmuth.

On a side note, the online coverage during the WSOP was top notch. Huge improvement from years past. Yes, I just said that. It took me literally hours to read through all the hand histories. The captions were dorky but I know some people go nuts for that stuff. Seriously though, nice job guys.

There was one bright spot to the series. After surviving Day 01, I attended Phil Gordon’s annual 4th of July party and got talked into playing the $500 buy-in World Series of Rochambeau, where I took second place. Yes, please dust off your favorite Wasicka second place joke. Before making my run, I met a very weird dude who called himself Master Roshambollah, but you can call me Master Rosh for short and claimed to be a Retired RPS player. He had these weird sayings like, I did not choose RPS greatness, it was thrust upon me, and stuff like that. Hilarious. Even more hilarious, he lost in the first round! He was gracious in defeat and complimented me for my deep run. Weird Dude, Fun Night.

I thought about playing the Bellagio events, but one can only stomach Vegas in the summer for so long before its time to get out of town. Good luck to Thomas Fuller who’s playing today in the Bellagio Cup.

Oh and I finally got a phone.

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Although I haven’t played many events this summer, I brought my A game
for every single one. Most of the time, I’ve known exactly which two
cards I’ve been up against. I feel great about tomorrow. I’m focused,
confident and extremely excited about poker. All that said, there’s one
more thing I know I’ll need: Lady Luck. No Main Event contender will go
far without her.

So dear lovely, sweet, awesome, Lady Luck,

This is Paul. You’ve been very good to me in the past and I’d really
like for us to get back together. We make a good pair. I need you by my
side.

You remember how the two of us cruised through the 06 Main Event? You
looking all sexy and me looking like the degenerate that I am? Well
that dirty man is back. You might recognize me tomorrow. I’ll be
wearing that huge ugly plaid shirt that I wore for three days straight
in 06. I’ll also be wearing my lucky boxers.

I’ll be at the Rio tomorrow, baby. Meet me there?

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Good thing the new iPhone is coming out in two weeks because two days ago I relaxed in the pool at Tao Beach. With my phone. So if I haven’t called you back&..

So I was thinking& Kind of sucks that the Main Event runs during the fourth of July. Don’t get me wrong, poker is fun. But the fourth is for barbecue, volleyball, and beer.

Here’s my Main Event plan: Play Day 1a on July 3rd, hopefully make it through. Unwind and party on the fourth. One day to recover. Then two more days to focus and get my mind right before coming back for Day 2a on the 8th. There will be imitators.

I haven’t been playing too many of the WSOP donkaments this time around. They really aren’t my specialty. I have an absolutely abysmal track record in tournies with buy-ins less than $5k.

I have been playing a lot online, however, and things have been all over the place. I played some 25/50 a week ago and ran pretty badly. Recently it’s been better though. My hands have held up.

On Saturday, I played a round of golf in the middle of the day. Five hours outside in Vegas in June? Pretty brutal. I have a newfound respect for Eric Lindgren, who won that huge bet last summer that he could play four rounds of golf in one day, walking the whole way and carrying his clubs.  Oh and he had to shoot under 100 each time. I still would have taken Eric though.

Yesterday I taught at the WSOP Academy with Annie Duke. I really like teaching at these. It’s cool to see people so fired up to play poker. It gets me fired up. I worked on general cash game strategies and Annie talked about preflop starting hands and the math behind making a preflop raise. It’s cool to see people soaking up all the information but it’s obvious that it takes a while to incorporate everything. I’d say the most common mistake people made yesterday was putting way too much money in preflop trying to hit sets. Putting a fifth of your stack in preflop with 3, 3 just isn’t profitable.

Well that’s it from here. I probably won’t play anything live until the ME but you should be able to find me online.  Kwicky

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Well, I had the honor or playing three mentionable hands today, resulting in a slightly quicker exit than in my previous four tournaments thus far.  The first hand developed when it folded around to me in the small blind and I raised a J,9 to 175.  The big blind quickly called and the flop came Qd,8h,5d.  I bet my gutshot 250 and my opponent quickly called again.  The turn brought the Qh.  I decided that I thought my opponent most likely held either an 8 or a 5 because I thought he’d raise me on the flop with a flush draw (and possibly a queen).  Therefore, since a J,T, and 9 are likely outs if I got called I decided to double barrel with a bet of 650.  My opponent called without much thought.  The river was a 3d.  I thought about giving up on the pot, but I really thought it was very unlikely that he had the flush or the trip queens because I would think that he would try to protect/push me out of the hand before the river with both of those hands, so I decided it was time for the triple barrel, even though it was still early in the tournament.  I did this for several reasons: first, I thought he would now have to fold anything other than trips, a boat, or a flush.  Second, I was pretty certain that I didn’t think he had one of those hands.  Third, I didn’t want to check and give him the pot with a mediocre hand because that would build his confidence and momentum starting the day and he’d have position on me the rest of the day.  Forth, I decided that even if I was wrong it would still be okay because it would give me a great table image to get paid off with for a while.  Therefore, I decided to throw out 1,650 and was insta-called by a Q,T.

Oh well, no biggie, I still have 7,000.

Later I raised second position with 3,3 and got called by the big blind.  I felt I had a strong read on this particular opponent, even this early.  The flop came K,Q,5 and I threw out 250.  He called after a think and the turn was a 6.  He checked and I still had him as weak, so I decided to throw out 525 and he folded.

A round later I raised under the gun with 7s,6s and was called by both the button and the big blind.  The flop was Jd,7c,6d.  I fired 525, the button folded and the big blind quickly raised to 1275.  At this point I decided that he likely had a big draw because I thought it was unlikely that he would flat call my preflop raise with J,7 or J,6 or J,J.  There’s a slight possibility that he called me with 7,7 or 6,6, but I think I’d just have to chalk that up to a cooler if that turned out to be the case.  I ruled out a jack trying to find out where he’s at because my opponent was out of position and he could easily be called by many hands that don’t necessarily have him beat, thus he’d gain no information with a raise.  I thought he was most likely to hold a flush draw and a pair, a flush draw and a straight draw, or a flush draw and an over card.  I thought a naked flush draw would likely either raise me bigger or flat call and play the hand slower.  After making my read I looked at chip stacks and thought the correct play was to flat call and either raise him all-in on the turn or price him out if he checked it to me.  I called and the turn was the Qs.  Perfect card.  A card in the 8 through T range would be a little worrisome because he could easily hit a higher two pair or his straight.  This, however was the perfect card because, as I noted earlier I didn’t think he’d raise me that small on the flop with a hand like J,Q.  He bet 1,800 and I had an easy decision move all-in.  My raise was 4,200 more and there was 4,825 in the pot.  Therefore, he’s getting a little over 2:1 to call, which is great because he either has to make a bad call or a good fold and I win a nice sized pot.  It turns out he called the 4,200 with Ad,Kd.  Wow, I didn’t put him on that strong of a hand because he didn’t squeeze preflop, but nonetheless, he still only has 11 outs (or 22% chance to win).  Unfortunately, the river brought the 9d, sending me packing after only a few rounds.  Oh well, I felt great about the few hands I did play and I’m feeling really confident for my next tournament. Off to the pool! Paul

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Hey, what’s up? The Series is in full swing and I’m really happy with how things are going. The last event I played was the $5k NL and although I didn’t cash, I’m very satisfied with how I played. I’m focused, motivated, and having fun.

I had a great last weekend. Some friends of mine road tripped it out here and we hung out with a bunch of players who are all renting a huge house for the series. They call it the Castle. We played some drunken $1/$2, hung out by the pool, and generally got into mischief. A few nights ago, these guys wanted to grab dinner at the South Point. The entrees were taking forever so Bag, Wolf, and I headed to the blackjack tables. Ten minutes later I hadn’t lost a single hand and I decided to call it quits (for the time being) on a great note.

I have to be in the mood for a typical Vegas weekend but it’s a lot easier to get right when many of my closest friends are around. We spent a couple of nights drinking Fat Tires in the hot tub, pulled a few successful joint sessions, and capped the weekend off with drinks at Fat Tuesdays (these places that essentially serve slushies brimming with grain alcohol). I don’t have the stones to try it but they offer a GIGANTIC jug of what is essentially frozen jungle juice for $45 that looks like it would kill all but the most hardcore lushes.

I also hit up the shooting range, which is a ton of fun. The range rents about 50 different kinds of guns there so there’s always something to try. After plinking away with some standard handguns, I decided it was time to get ridiculous. I rented a .50 cal handgun, almost the most useless invention in firearms history. It had a huge barrel on it, and one of those stocks that braces on your bicep. Why is this gun almost the most useless invention? Because at the gun range owner’s suggestion, the next gun I tried was The Little Dragon, a fully automatic handgun. This thing was completely ridiculous. Picture a handgun, but then realize that the clip sticks down about 10 inches below the gun. They told me to really lean into it and thankfully I did because as soon as my finger hit the trigger, the gun tore through 25 rounds in about 2 seconds. I couldn’t hit a damn thing but wow was this awesome! Completely impractical, completely fun. I burst fired the next clip and actually managed to hit the target. Blackpowder therapy. :

Like all good weekends, this one came to a much needed end. My friends left on Tuesday morning and I headed down to the Rio for a NL short-handed event. Back to it! Paul

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Hey what’s up? As you probably know from past posts, I basically live for games. If I didn’t make money playing poker I’d be playing some other game, probably for a lot less money. Since I play poker most days, I only allow myself to play one person games (i.e. video games) for small periods of time. That said, I’ve been playing a lot of Rome Total War, which is fun, if a little slow paced. During last year’s WSOP, I played a ton of Oblivion. When it’s 120 degrees outside in Vegas, sometimes the best thing to do is sit back with a Corona and hit the Xbox. Recently though, Oblivion has taken a back seat to Assassin’s Creed. I’ve heard the game can get repetitive but right now I’m loving how the main character (who looks like a complete badass) runs, jumps, and climbs everything in sight. Kind of a cross between Splinter Cell and Sonic the Hedgehog. When I was in London last summer, I watched a few guys practicing parkour, which is basically what the main character in AC does. Pretty amazing to see these guys jump off a roof, land on a fire escape, propel themselves through sets of horizontal bars, etc. I won’t be doing much of that with my torn MCL but I am happy to report that my knee is improving daily. I can actually run again (with a brace), which is huge.

That sums it up for video games but I’d be holding out on you guys if I didn’t tell you about Settlers of Catan. In my opinion, Catan is the coolest board game invented. It’s a cross between Monopoly and Risk. The object of the game is to accumulate points. You do so by controlling land and collecting resources from the land. There are a number of ways to win. I like it because, due to luck and what your opponents are doing, your strategy changes throughout the game. Also, because the board pieces are assembled randomly, no two games are the same. I’ve also played some Super Smash Bros., Tripoli, and Quoridor. Good stuff.

As for poker, I’ve been playing exclusively heads up cash games. Come find me online. : Paul

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