This is a hand from cash game last week at Commerce Casino. The blinds are $100/$200, No Limit Hold’em, pretty tough game with almost all pros, with the exception of Manny Pacau (best boxer in the world right now – for those of you that dont watch sports). I bought into the game with $30k, and have about $40k before this hand. Matt Gionetti (a good pro) who has been playing tight raises to $600 from 2nd position. Matt has about a $32k stack (the bet sizes and stack sizes are estimates but I think they’re close). I am directly to Matt’s left, and call with . The action folds to Gregg (FBT) Mueller, another good pro, who calls from the big blind. I could tell Gregg was thinking about re-raising pre-flop (this means alot with my decision process after the flop). Gregg’s stack is about $36k.

Flop comes . Huge flop for me with the open-ended straight draw, flush draw, and also the gutter straight flush draw! Matt leads out with $1,600. I raise to $5,000, Gregg re-raises to $22,000, then Matt moves all-in!! It’s gonna be about $30,000 for me to call. I’m pretty sure Gregg is gonna put the rest of his money in. At this point I am 95% sure Matt has top set, and Gregg has a set of 10′s (remember he was thinking about re-raising pre flop). I think he would re-raise with pre-flop, and maybe think about it with 10′s, but not with 8′s. The fact that he thought about it lead me to put him on a set of tens. I was certain Matt had set of kings because he was playing very tight looking for good spot to put his money in, and although top pair and nut flush draw is big hand it is only flush draw in this situation (Matt is thinking player and he has to put Gregg on a set).

I’m pretty certain neither player has , and this is the one hand I would be in bad shape against. I hate to call off my money on a draw, but in this situation it’s a no brainer – I am getting almost 2.5 to 1 with the money in the pot, and if correct with my assumption that neither player has , Im about 43% (or better if Matt doesnt hold K of spades) to win the hand! So I move all-in now. Gregg goes in the tank for long time for his last $10k (he knows he’s against top set at this point) and finally calls. Gregg has a set of 10′s, Matt has a set of kings (with ), and I’m still almost 43% to win hand. We ran the turn and river twice, and I missed both times! Oh well, maybe next time I will get there both times! But at least I anaylized the hand right and made the correct call. In the long run it would be a mathematical disaster to fold this hand! The good news is I got back to even in this game…although it took a 24 hour session to do so!